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The same can’t be said of, which served up a profits warning. Dr Martens, the boot firm, and Moonpig, the online greetings card outfit, reported good-ish numbers on Thursday and both are just above their starting prices (4% and 7% respectively). You get thrills and spills with IPOs, but two of this year’s high-profile crop in the retailing sector have settled near their float prices. After a scare, it seems to be moving in the right direction. That projection feels a little dreamy since the kit for the mini nuclear power stations is still at the assessment stage, but it is a reminder that Rolls works on extremely long cycles. Then there’s the new hope of riches from small modular reactors, a business East reckons one day could be bigger than the whole of today’s Rolls-Royce. The Power Systems division is toiling against shortages of semiconductor chips but the order book is strong.
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Meanwhile, the defence side has predictably sailed through the crisis and won high-profile work to upgrade the engines on the US air force’s B-52s. The civil aerospace side grabs about 90% of the attention but, in its newly shrunken form, is only about one-third of the group. No wonder chief executive Warren East was keen to talk up the idea that Rolls was now a “balanced” business. Instead, Thursday’s 3% fall was a case of investors wondering if Omicron will cause a re-closing. Rolls can stay aloft even when “engine flying hours”, a critical contractual metric for income, are still only half the level of 2019.Ī couple of weeks ago, the news might have given fresh wings to the rally in Rolls’ shares that has been powered by the reopening of transatlantic air routes. The effort has involved £1bn of cost-cutting, 8,500 job losses and a mammoth refinancing, but one can say now that the turnaround programme did what it was supposed to. The net tally for the whole of 2021 will still be an outflow of £1.6bn-ish, but 2022 should be positive. Between July and September, there was an inflow. It’s not exactly a triumph, but it is a milestone: aero-engine maker Rolls-Royce, a corporate Covid sufferer via the collapse in air travel, is no longer burning cash every quarter. After a scare Rolls-Royce keeps on rolling on in the right directions This saga relates to taxpayer funding from 2014 and its seriousness seems to have been serially underappreciated. That feels unlikely since the failings relate solely to Southeastern, but the board has some explaining to do when the accounts eventually appear, which is expected to be before the end of January. The main way in which events could get worse for Go-Ahead is if the DfT decides to remove the remaining Thameslink franchise, a big commuter route. No investor likes to be stuck in the sidings, so you can understand why the shares reversed by 15%. The delay means Go-Ahead will miss its deadline for filing this year’s accounts, in turn provoking a suspension in trading in the shares on 4 January, an embarrassment for a public company.
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One uncertainty is how to estimate the size of the provision for the fine that DfT, almost certainly, will impose.
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Now comes another grovelling admission of “serious errors” plus news that the two parents’ postmortem on events is so complex that the auditors, Deloitte, need extra time to finalise this year’s accounts. Go-Ahead apologised and said £25m – a far chunkier sum – had been returned. In September, the DfT stripped Southeastern of the franchise and accused the company of a “serious” breach of the franchise agreement. The small problem, however, keeps getting bigger. The accounts confidently asserted that should the DfT’s claim prove successful “the outflow of resources could be in the region of £8m”. The quarrel sounded dry, technical and the sort of thing that crops up from time to time on the railways. Note 27 gave brief details of a dispute with the Department for Transport about past profit-sharing calculations on the Southeastern rail franchise, where Go-Ahead had a 65% stake in partnership with French firm Keolis. T he most important item in Go-Ahead’s annual accounts last year, it turns out, was buried on page 188.
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